Unless the crash causes the industry to disappear altogether (which is about as likely as alcohol disappearing during prohibition) we’re in great shape.

I think the ones hurting the most are the big industry brewers who are used to operating on large profit margins.

Microbrewers are used to operating with small staff, keeping distributing costs low, and using free advertising through social media sites, building buzz through reputation, etc.

The simple fact is that the world is moving to an era of personalization. They like picking and choosing their own songs and building their own iPod playlists (a fact that has turned iTunes into the number one music retailer). We like customization, choosing from a variety, having our tastes tailored to by companies… not the other way around.

This is what craft beer is all about.

Although he doesn’t discuss beer specifically, Tyler Cowen, an economist from George Mason University, has a great book out called “Create Your Own Economy” about how the future of economics is all about personalization, ordering of preferences and organization (aided and abetted by the internet). As I’ve mentioned, the craft beer industry is set up to do this.

RB and BA help us order and organize our preferences, twitter helps us communicate directly with brewers. This is exactly what Cowen predicts will be the controlling aspect of the future economy. He also predicts that people who are better at this type of ordering (which, as a side note here, he identifies as a feature of Autism spectral disorder and goes into great detail about) will be the important and successful players in the future economy.

So what we have in the world of craft beer in the perfect combination. Beer producers who are developing in a market where their diverse offerings will be in high demand, can execute small, efficient operations in cost effective ways.

They are servicing a market that’s online, communicating with each other and fitting the prototype of the “next-generation” consumer.

I’m confidant that if it was possible to download beer, only the computer-illiterate would still be buying Bud.

This is why I think the biggest problem the industry faces is the high cost of distribution and legal barriers to shipping across state lines. The best way to buy beer is still at your local bottle shop. Although buying local is great, I believe this is limiting the growth of the craft industry. The big guys do save money when it comes to the “economy of scale” and have their own distribution networks that they can move beer through. (The low quality ingredients isn’t the only reason why macro is so cheap)

This is not an easy problem to solve, but I don’t think it will keep craft beer from growing. If anyone does figure it out, though, I predict that they’ll be very rich.

(wow, I can’t believe I ranted so much on this. Economics and beer are two of my favorite hobbies, so I love when I can combine them. Great Article!)

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